Archive for Tom Tancredo

Fox: Huckabee has strong lead in Oklahoma

Posted by: Jason | December 27th, 2007 · 1:23 PM

(image: okhouse)

A new Fox poll out today has Mike Huckabee commanding a sharp lead in Oklahoma.

Huckabee: 29%
McCain: 17%
Giuliani: 11%
Romney: 9%
Thompson: 8%

An interesting fact about these southern state polls continues to be the lagging interest in Mitt Romney. The rise of Mike Huckabee rules out the myth that southern voters are rejecting the former Massachusetts governor strictly for lack of name recognition. Huckabee was hardly nationally known himself just two months ago.

In southern state numbers like this Oklahoma poll, to recent polls out of Texas and North Carolina, voters are rejecting Mitt Romney as their least favorite Republican choice. This could change in the general election as southern voters only have two choices, but all recent polls out of the south show Romney as the weakest candidate in the Republican Party, aside from the ever-irrelevant Fred Thompson.

One has to question whether a Romney nomination would place Hillary Clinton in competitive advantage in the south. Already she leads Romney in her once home state of Arkansas, others geographically could follow as Oklahoma, North Carolina, and Texas have suggested.

Story Source

Add us: Digg | Del.icio.us | Technorati

Whole New Race?

Posted by: Jason | December 21st, 2007 · 12:22 PM

(image:abcnews)

Conventional wisdom has suggested a few inevitabilities about the coming election. Until recently, we believed that Rudy Giuliani, “America’s Mayor”, and his band of moderate groupies, would simply sweep the larger states through name recognition alone post-Florida. Likewise, that if any potential challenger had the slimmest of chances, he’d need to run a long shot sweep of the early states in order to gain enough momentum to unite the conservative base (currently split by Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson).

If trends continue, conventional wisdom may be knocked on its proverbial head. Rudy Giuliani is fading in the polls, nationally, as well as in traditional states he was sure to carry with ease. Giuliani’s big state strategy began in Florida, but most polls have seen his lead in the sunshine state now shrink between a 4-7 point advantage only. Rudy being capped at 29% and fading, one of the two leading conservative contenders may be poised to pass Giuliani, (Huckabee already has in one Rasmussen poll) as either Huckabee or Romney will surely begin to consolidate support through successes in earlier states like Iowa and South Carolina. Similar trends for Mayor Giuliani are showing up in Texas (where Huckabee is leading in one recent poll), Nevada (where Romney and Huckabee are gaining), Missouri, and Ohio.

What if this race changed into an entirely different story? What if all five candidates, mimicking the national polls through the public’s increased knowledge of their candidacies and stances now, were able to command a national competition that went state to state without fear of the Giuliani juggernaut waiting to gobble up a divided conservative base? The latest Rasmussen national poll has Giuliani down to 4th place at 13%, behind Huckabee (21%), Romney (15%), and John McCain (15%). Will the national trends effect other larger states such as California and others as they apparently have in Florida?

If so, we may see a reflection of these national polls on a state by state basis. If Giuliani isn’t conceived as the inevitable candidate any longer (his being “most electable” was the only reason many conservatives were supporting him), than he can only command his true believers, socially-moderate Rockefeller Republicans and war hawks that split McCain. Likewise, Mike Huckabee commands the majority support of evangelical Christian conservatives and traditional social conservatives alike, Mitt Romney splits traditional Republicans with swing voters that now view him as most electable (Rudy’s old electable mantle is starting to lean Romney), and John McCain with his moderates, independents, and war hawks. Fred Thompson hasn’t proven he can play with the big boys and will surely be out of the race after South Carolina (if not Iowa).

So who wins under this scenario? That answer lies in who commands the biggest entirety of a particular base. In this situation I believe a few things will happen. First, that Rudy Giuliani, who for months has enjoyed a cap at 25% support in the Republican Party (only because of electability reasons), will dip down to 20% or lower nationally. Moderates are only so powerful in the party during a primary. John McCain will split moderate and war hawk votes with Rudy, himself capping out at 15% or slightly higher. This will leave 60-65% of the vote up for grabs. In a race of Romney vs Huckabee, I’m not sure who wins just yet (it all depends on Iowa).

Romney will command traditional Republicans. I’m seeing a trend of many traditional conservatives, perhaps Rush Limbaugh included, who will drop their principles in favor of a man who is “saying the right things”. Forget the fact that Mitt Romney is a blue-blood Christie Todd Whitman Republican who’s changed every position from guns to abortion, he morphed himself into Reagan now, and that’s all that matters to some people when they’re scrambling.

Mike Huckabee in turn will command all social conservatives. And with social conservatives being 33% or more of the base (especially in the primary season), it’s very possible that Huckabee could win on commanding the entirety of a particular base alone (evangelicals won’t vote Romney over a Baptist preacher). Contrasting, I believe Mitt Romney will split votes with McCain and Rudy. Especially Rudy, for Romney’s new national surge seems to be at the expense of the former mayor’s decline. If Rudy comes back only slightly from his current slump, it’ll cut into Romney’s numbers and propel Mike Huckabee to enjoy an entire segment of the base for himself.

Of course, this theory is all predicated on the possibility of Rudy Giuliani continuing to tank. Only then would a national battle towards the convention be possible. If Rudy holds strong through the winds of change, only a conservative with united support will beat him for the nomination (either Huckabee or Romney after Iowa). It’s an exciting election year indeed.

Add us: Digg | Del.icio.us | Technorati

Romney now seen as “most conservative”

Posted by: Jason | November 13th, 2007 · 12:10 AM

(image: meridianmagazine)

Just months ago, we here at PP were talking about Fred Thompson’s proverbial lock on the Republican primary nomination. Our confidence in the matter came from one glaring poll result; in those days, Rasmussen Reports showed the former Tennessee senator dominating the question of “who is seen as the most conservative?”.

Thanks in part to confusion over Thompson’s “states rights” approach to abortion and gay marriage, and a general belief that his campaign lacks the energy to win the nomination, those days have gone. In the latest Rasmussen poll, Thompson has now dropped 11 percentage points (all in the last few weeks), and is now seen as “conservative” by only 40% of the public. 34% now say that Thompson is politically moderate.

Governor Mitt Romney now tops the Rasmussen field, with a whopping 46% saying that Romney is conservative, and only 26% viewing him as moderate.

Likewise, Mike Huckabee is quickly gaining ground on Senator Thompson, coming in with 38% viewing him as politically conservative. If projections hold true, he will surpass the Thompson mark to become the 2nd highest rated conservative in the field.

These projections hold well for the Romney camp, which is quickly becoming viewed as the conservative alternative, and the only candidate able to knock off the more moderate Rudy Giuliani, whose numbers came in at 21% conservative and 60% moderate.

Poll Results

Add us: Digg | Del.icio.us | Technorati

Some Thoughts On Rudy

Posted by: Jason | October 11th, 2007 · 12:46 PM

(image: nytimes.com)

I want to preface this little exercise in exploring the Republican field with the fact that I’m a Fred Thompson man. We here at PP have listed countless discussions over Thompson’s candidacy and feel the man to be the most conservative of the electable candidates, as proven in his past history of cutting taxes, scoring well with pro-life organizations, and being a states rights man.

But the question of “what if Fred doesn’t do it” keeps coming up in my mind. I must admit, I’m a bit more skeptical than my counterpart Lee is. I tend to constantly ask him questions like “if you had to vote for a guy other than Thompson, who would it be?”. He responds with the same reassuring comment each time, “do you really see Rudy or Mitt winning South Carolina?”. I suppose I don’t.

More >>>

Add us: Digg | Del.icio.us | Technorati

Top Tier Republicans, Scheduling Problems, and the “Black Debate”

Posted by: Jason | September 28th, 2007 · 8:53 AM

(image: colorado college)

I must admit, last night, when watching the debate on PBS hosted by Tavis Smiley and Morgan State University, that I was a little disappointed in the top tier no-show Republican candidates. No… no… Not because I believed the forum to be important, but for a missed golden opportunity to take a conservative message into a traditionally non-conservative base.

Let’s be frank however, before I get into why I’m upset today. It was a very uncomfortable moment, the beginning of that debate. These folks were dreadfully upset that they couldn’t give a real voice to Republicanism last night (cough cough… bullshit), and there was a real sense of sadness in the room (cough cough… more hatred). But then… suddenly… all sympathy turned to laughter on my part after the first debate question. A black woman asked, “most know the first Republican president was Abraham Lincoln, yet, most black folks cannot name a single Republican president since Lincoln’s death that has made a lasting mark on the black community”.

Ehmm. All I can say is thank God for Tom Tancredo, who reminded us all of Dwight Eisenhower’s roll in desegregation and the majority Republican congress who passed the Civil Rights Act. And in his defense, Alan Keyes set the story straight on that, and many other questions (I especially liked his tirade against “liberal blacks”). But it’s exactly this type of nonsensical, racist thinking, which spews from the political black community which I applaud the top tier candidates for thumbing their nose at. Duncan Hunter gave the simplest answer to that question, which shines a light on what is wrong with debates on “minority issues” all together. He talked about his desire to help ALL people with his policies, and that the achievements of men such as Ronald Reagan in making this world a peaceful place benefited black Americans and white Americans alike. Amen to that!

But the true reason, as I’ve said above, that I regret candidates Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, and McCain, was the inability for a top tier candidate to speak directly to political black America and tell them one simple message: “DEBATES ON RACE ARE RACIST IN NATURE!!!”.

Maybe I’m clueless here. After all… we’re talking Romney, Giuliani, and McCain, and no such bold conservative plea for an end to racial politics would have been uttered. Thompson? Maybe… But one thing’s for sure, Republicans oughta defend WHY they skipped such a debate, and go after the true culprits in the arena of race-baiting hate politics: The greater political black community who casually ignores the fact that a debate on THEIR PEOPLE alone is a concept that is segregationist, paranoid, and racist.

Add us: Digg | Del.icio.us | Technorati

Iowa Straw Poll: A Candidate By Candidate Analysis

Posted by: Jason | August 12th, 2007 · 8:11 PM

(image: sptimes)

So I thought it would make for a fun exercise to examine the implications of the recent Iowa Straw Poll. Why do I care about this every 8 years tradition? It’s the first time we start to see candidates out of the race.

#1 Mitt Romney: First off, kudos. Romney’s speech was fantastic. Not necessarily how it was delivered (though Romney does command attention), but the words themselves. It was above his recent standards. As to the win… He’s a politician, so naturally that means he has to hoot and holler as if this means something. Gee… You won without Rudy, Fred, or McCain in. Hardly impressive. But the fact that his campaign mounted a massive organization to force them from even competing is. Romney may be a real contender (for now).

#2 Mike Huckabee: I was glad to see Huckabee in second place. Why? Because out of the lot that was in that day, he was the best candidate. I admit, I secretly root for Huckabee to do better than he does. He’s the kind of guy you’d want in the White House at times, because you know he’s honest. What’s impressive is how a man with practically no organization in Iowa comes in second on pure oratory skill. He gives the best speech out of any candidate.

More >>>

Add us: Digg | Del.icio.us | Technorati

Tancredo Goes YouTube on Romney

Posted by: Ion | June 25th, 2007 · 9:16 PM

Another fun item from David All, this time at TechRepublican. David just got fed a clip from the Tancredo campaign, in which Tom challenges Mitt on illegal immigration.

The clip is pure amateur hour and perhaps a little charming because of it. Shaky camera handling, background noise, choppy editing and all. But the kicker is Tancredo demands Romney respond on YouTube. I say again, on YOUTUBE.

A new age.

Supplemental: The look and feel of this video clip conforms to a ready reality on the web. User-generated-content is replacing organizationally generated content. Given this demand, the ambiance of intimacy in a cheap home video may be the institutional technique of the future:

(emarketer)

Add us: Digg | Del.icio.us | Technorati