Archive for Three Amigos

Some thoughts on South Carolina

Posted by: Jason | January 20th, 2008 · 1:45 AM

(image: nytimes)

Arizona Senator John McCain just won a state he had no business winning weeks ago. Despite a narrow three-point edging of rival southerner Mike Huckabee, this win is tremendous for the McCain camp. I predict that history holds true, and that South Carolina delivers our next Republican nominee yet again.

Some predictions: McCain goes on to win a hard fought battle against Rudy Giuliani and others in Florida. Giuliani shows better than expected (considering he’s ranked dead last in every contest thus far), Romney competes again for “another silver”, Huckabee holds his band of evangelical Christian voters but finishes a distant 3rd or 4th after a devastating blow this evening, and McCain rides the Florida victory momentum through Super Tuesday, winning most major states to seal the nomination.

While a McCain candidacy proves a challenge in many ways for some conservatives, having a nominee who can win a general election should fair attractive to Republicans across the spectrum (coupled with the fear of Hillary Clinton in the White House). McCain’s strengths could potentially outweigh his weaknesses, as he’ll run on a platform of sealing the border first, keeping the Bush tax cuts permanent, winning the war with honor, and restraining Washington spending.

Unlike many previous nominees, McCain’s is a story worth telling. A war hero, Vietnam POW, and someone who has served his country with honor and experience. Placed against Hillary Rodham Clinton, there isn’t a doubt in my mind that he could win that fight, ensuring another four years of security for this country.

Unlike Huckabee, he could unite the base behind a generally conservative message. Unlike Romney, he is a known leader with experience whose likability ratings are high with both Republicans and Independents. Unlike Giuliani, he shows an example of ethics. It could be that all along, John McCain was the best man for “winning” the job this fall. Time will certainly tell.

Congratulations to Senator McCain for a fine victory this evening.

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Rudy Tanks

Posted by: Jason | January 9th, 2008 · 4:13 PM

(image: observer)

New Rasmussen numbers out today have Rudy Giuliani dead last in the Republican field nationally. Also, John McCain and Mitt Romney are neck and neck in the polls behind Mike Huckabee.

Huckabee: 22%
McCain: 19%
Romney: 19%
Thompson: 12%
Giuliani: 9%

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It’s McCain!

Posted by: Jason | · 10:36 AM

(image: washingtonpost)

Further along in my “anybody but Romney” quest for the Republican nomination, McCain thankfully wins the New Hampshire primary:

McCain: 37%
Romney: 32%
Huckabee: 11%
Giuliani: 9%
Paul: 8%
Thompson: 1%

A few thoughts…

Not quite the 9-point lashing Huckabee put on Romney in Iowa, but McCain’s victory was decisive enough hopefully for the pundits to begin questioning how Romney can win. How can a guy spend $8 million in both Iowa and New Hampshire and win neither? Yet again, proof positive that Mitt Romney is a weak candidate.

Mike Huckabee carries third place, slightly impressive considering his former 5th-6th place standing before the Iowa victory. He beats a northeastern Rudy Giuliani who actually campaigned 40 times in New Hampshire. Huckabee leaves the granite state in great condition, able to compete in Michigan, and up in every major South Carolina poll.

Fred Thompson is officially finished. I don’t care if he didn’t campaign here. You can’t take 1% of anything and expect to be taken seriously anymore. He’ll stake his claim in South Carolina, and I’d wager won’t go over the 12% mark, only to drop out afterwards.

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Carolina’s a waitin’

Posted by: Jason | January 7th, 2008 · 11:38 PM

(image: destination360)

George W. won Iowa in 2000. He went on to loose New Hampshire and Michigan shortly after to John McCain. But the old moderate soldier just couldn’t outlast his southern rival once South Carolina had a say in the matter. Sound familiar?

New Rasmussen numbers out of South Carolina:

Huckabee: 28%
McCain: 21%
Romney: 15%
Thompson: 11%
Giuliani: 10%

Two significants points to consider with these numbers: First, if Romney wins NH and goes on to fight another day, he’ll need to make up a 13-point lead against Governor Huckabee in a state that caters to gun-touting Baptists more than Mormons from Massachusetts. Likewise, if McCain wins NH and sets up 2000 Part Duex, he’ll need to do what he failed to do before (at a much younger age), beat a southern conservative in a southern conservative state.

Second to consider is Fred Thompson. Most Huckabee fans had to worry about Fred catching fire in South Carolina, if anything, as the potential spoiler with pro-lifers and gun owners. These numbers may change as Fred spends more time there, but it seems his South Carolina organization has completely tanked for the moment, and I’m not sure we should predict a further increase after NH (most polls show him at 3-5% support). Plus, Ed Rollins will surely frame the South Carolina debate as conservatives needing to rally with Huck to stop Romney or McCain.

*Most recent polls have Huckabee up 8-10 points.

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2 Republican debates this weekend

Posted by: Jason | January 5th, 2008 · 9:55 AM

(image: nationalgeographic)

Saturday-January, 5

7pm
Saint Anselm College-Manchester, NH
ABC and Facebook jointly host
Invites: John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Ron Paul (Duncan Hunter excluded)

Sunday-January, 6

TBA
New Hampshire Republican Party-Milford, NH
Fox News Channel
Invites: John McCain, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson (Ron Paul/Duncan Hunter excluded).

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California: 8 Point Game

Posted by: Jason | January 4th, 2008 · 6:20 PM

(image: elcivics)

So much for Rudy’s big state strategy. Already threatened in this month’s Florida election, here’s a recent Field Poll out of California:

Giuliani: 25%
Huckabee: 17%

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The Duo: Huckabee/McCain Would Make a Great Ticket

Posted by: Jason | December 31st, 2007 · 2:19 AM

Just a little late night statement before bed… I think Mike Huckabee and John McCain would make an excellent ticket together. It strikes me as interesting just how much these two men need each other, beyond their bi-state mutual tag team against Mitt Romney right now. Place the ticket in any order, one compliments the other in a seriously needed way.

If Governor Huckabee is able to somehow pull out a win in Iowa this week, despite an onslaught from the media and establishment Republicans alike, he will undoubtedly become the favorite to carry South Carolina, Florida, and the southern states beyond. If such a crazy scenario were to happen, something we never saw coming months ago, his need would be for a name-recognized running mate, not too far off from his particular brand of maverick politics, who specializes in national security. John McCain would simply be perfect, and would immediately ease any national security concerns over the Arkansas governor, reminiscent of Cheney’s agreeing to serve with Bush.

If Huckabee’s recent stardom fades this week, after countless attacks from Mitt Romney, and if he places second in Iowa, his stock may plummet, leaving room for a newly surging John McCain to compete long term as the truce conservative post-New Hampshire (Mitt Romney is still not acceptable to the party and will not win the nomination). If McCain, under this scenario, were to become the nominee, his main fault line lies with an old split with Christian conservatives. Having Huckabee as a running mate would not only give the ticket an exciting speaker to compliment McCain’s humble style, but would feature the “only” man who could shore up and convince the Christian base of a McCain candidacy.

Either one of these two gets the nomination, I foresee the other joining the cause shortly after.

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What do these men have in common?

Posted by: Jason | December 30th, 2007 · 2:37 PM

1. Governors of geographically electable states.

2. No foreign policy experience as candidates for president.

3. All three either attempted to, or did raise taxes, during their tenures as governor.

4. Controversial support surrounded their candidacies.

5. They were underestimated.

Just four days away from the first official state contest, the Iowa caucuses, Republicans have a choice to make on which candidate is best qualified, most serious, and able to make the inner judgments necessary that make a good president. I believe of the five top tier candidates, that Mike Huckabee is the most qualified to meet that criteria.

We talk of mistakes made in the campaign, that Governor Huckabee hasn’t the foreign policy know-how to be our president. To this claim I would say this: Think of the campaigns of many a governor running for president, in particular, these two fine Republican presidents above in George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan. In the case of George W. Bush, here was a man, largely ignorant of foreign concerns abroad during his own campaign, who couldn’t provide the name of the Pakistani general who had recently overtaken his nation in coup during an interview (we know him today as General Pervez Musharraf). An important detail I’d say considering the events of today, yet President Bush was eventually elected president, overseeing one of the most dangerous times in American history. Likewise, in the case of Ronald Reagan, despite a history of writings and serious stances on Communism, this candidate showed perhaps the worst debate performance in history against his opening clash with Walter Mondale. He would later recover, but had we considered a talking point mistake or two as a true linkage to his abilities, we might have missed out on ending of the Cold War.

These candidates are men, and as such are subject to mistakes. Whether that means Governor Huckabee should have said “sympathies” rather than “apologies” in his heartfelt statement after a brutal assassination in Pakistan, or a young Governor of Texas should have known the name of the Canadian Prime Minister to his north during an interview, the gravity and the soul of the man remains the most important criteria to consider in these presidential contests.

As proven again, in his recent appearance this morning on Meet The Press, while perhaps not the most experienced in foreign policy (though I would say more impressive than candidates Romney and Giuliani), Mike Huckabee continues to do what he does best, which is to speak with more gravity and consideration for real human issues than any other candidate. It is why despite the outcome of the coming Iowa election, I am proud to support him as the best “man” qualified for the job of president.

Let’s compare this to Mitt Romney, a man in which National Review has charged as more serious. How serious is it in fact, when a man will say anything to get elected? Where in issues of foreign policy, merely showing an example of toughness is all that matters. When just after a suicide bombing, which took the life of a beloved political figure in the state of Pakistan, the only reply is a position of strength, and not compassion and understanding for a people, many of which had just lost all hope of democratic reform. I say shame on Mitt Romney, for he continues to prove himself a capable man, but one who only puts that talent towards his own political fortunes and not the entirity of the American people, or the human race for that matter.

On Rudy, a man the media claims to have a one-up on the Arkansas governor when it comes to foreign issues, I ask, what business is it of a mayor of New York City to know of foreign events, any more than it is a governor of a southern state? Does merely seeing a terrorist attack in person, rather than on television, prepare you more for the handling of complicated foreign affairs? And what of these opinions of Mayor Giuliani? As a citizen who gets to vote in the coming primary election, what I hear from the mayor are mere talking points, suggestions that we should “stay on offense” in the War On Terror, without any real substance of understanding the complicated matters of the world and the human conditions which spawn terrorism itself. Rudy is awash in cheesy sound bites, reminiscent of the Bush Administration’s tendency to overly use terms like “freedom is on the march” in place of real articulations that help his people understand the mission itself. Should we doubt the polls are so negative towards Iraq, when the common man on the street couldn’t pinpoint the cause we fighting for in a matter of 10 seconds? Mike Huckabee’s communication skill will be more than helpful in solving this dilemma.

Republicans, if you want a man that uses the tragedy of 9/11, albeit within the context of an honorable performance, but despite a shell which encases a hollow and immoral individual that disagrees with every major movement conservative on actual policy, Rudy Giuliani is your man. If you don’t care for principle, and would allow yourselves to be fooled by a politician in the moderate mold of Christie Todd Whitman, who has literally changed every major position, on guns, religion, abortion, gay rights, taxes, and a whole host of others, who would use you as pawns in a game of personal ambition, than Mitt Romney is your candidate.

Governor Mike Huckabee isn’t perfect. But if you analyze the imperfections, you will find them less intolerable than the others. On taxes, he did raise them in Arkansas. Once at the command of his own state supreme court, which demanded education expenses be increased, the other, after a state-wide referendum passed by 80% which sought to rebuild roads and infrastructure in a state which ranked dead last in the area. You’ll also want to note that after the funds were raised, the governor recut taxes after it wasn’t any longer needed. On immigration, while it is true that the governor fought to allow the “children” of illegals to gain scholarships to Arkansas schools, the bill never passed, and it was only for those who had been in the state for a period of time, who performed exceptional in schools. We can disagree with that belief, or we can look to Mayor Giuliani or Governor Romney’s sanctuary policies in their respective states and cities. Contrasting, Governor Huckabee’s border plan is second to none in this race in terms of getting tough on the border and companies which hire illegals. Go beyond those two concerns, and you will find a man who is more conservative on guns, social issues, reform of the IRS, and securing the border, than any other candidate. Who speaks with more inspiration, with a conviction from real personal experience, and with a likability comparable to the great Ronald Reagan.

Normally, I tend to distance myself from homemade campaign videos. But I want you to watch this quick two minute speech of Mike Huckabee’s at the CPAC convention earlier this year, set to music by an apparent fan. It’s not the best of quality, but I think it gives a rational perspective towards what the foreign policy vision of Mike Huckabee would be. Without question, in a time of slogans and misunderstanding as to what type of enemy we face in Iraq, Afghanistan and beyond, this CPAC speech presented a great moment for Huckabee in that it showed him to be the most Reaganeque in his ability to communicate, to inspire people to an understanding of what we face, and what we need to do to win. I truly believe that if we pass this candidate up, for the sake of buffoon politicians like Mitt Romney, we are doing this country a great disservice. If we do, it’ll been the equivalent of our passing on Reagan for the sake of nominating Gerald Ford in 1976.

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