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Military Multilateralism on Iran

Posted by: Ion | April 1st, 2007 · 7:19 PM

NATO

As the UK hostage crisis continues to deteriorate due to Iranian provocation, CQ asks an intriguing question:

What happens if Blair goes to NATO? If NATO refuses to respond, then NATO is finished. However, the US will do its best to keep it together, and that means the US has to come to Britain’s assistance.
(Captain’s Quarters via HotAir)

It would indeed. As difficult as it is to imagine Blair taking this step, it is the ultimate escalatory response. The nature of the hostage seizure and a perhaps imminent storming of the UK embassy are probably sufficient grounds for invoking Article 5 of the treaty. As a recap, here is the relevant text:

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.
(NATO)

While it’s perhaps unlikely that the NATO nations would consider the hostage seizure as representing sufficient grounds for Article 5 invocation, the risk of approval for Iran is stupendous. Functionally, it would mean the end of the theocracy. Thus as diplomatic threat, it’s the coup de grâce. If anything can give Ali Khamenei and the IRGC pause, this would it be.

Posted in: General. Iran. United Kingdom. Khamenei. IRGC |

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